Economic policy uncertainty

  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate ESG Performance
    Using the sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2020 to 2021, this study investigates the impact of EPU on corporate ESG performance. We find that EPU improves corporate ESG performance, and the results largely hold after a series of robustness tests. Furthermore, EPU has a significantly positive effect on each dimension of corporate ESG performance (environment, society and governance). In addition, we document that the positive effect of EPU on corporate ESG performance is more pronounced for state-owned firms, and firms with better internal governance, better external governance, and firms that are more financially-constrained. This study provides large-sample empirical evidence for the effect of EPU on corporate ESG performance, which provides implications for management to make use of corporate ESG performance in the face with uncertain economic policy environment.
  • 详情 Does Corporate Social Responsibility Affect Stock Liquidity? Evidence from China
    This study investigates whether and how corporate social responsibility (CSR) affects stock liquidity. Utilizing panel data from 3,366 Chinese enterprises spanning 2010 to 2021, empirical findings suggest that CSR endeavors facilitate an uplift in stock liquidity. Specifically, a 1% increase in CSR score will improve stock liquidity by 0.128%. The research further reveals that media coverage and corporate operations are crucial channels for CSR to affect stock liquidity, with the former playing a more dominant role. Notably, the bolstering effect of CSR on stock liquidity is amplified during periods of increasing economic policy uncertainty. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the influence of CSR on stock liquidity is particularly salient in state-owned enterprises. Additionally, different CSR subcategories (shareholder responsibility, employee responsibility, and social responsibility) vary in their effect on stock liquidity. Shareholder and employee responsibilities both enhance stock liquidity, with the impact of shareholder liability being particularly pronounced.
  • 详情 I Am Who I Am, Share Repurchases Under Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China
    Using sample of Chinese listed firms from Q1 2017 to Q4 2022, this article examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on share repurchases. We find that economic policy uncertainty significantly increases the probability and scale of open market share repurchases. Private enterprises, government-supported enterprises, innovative enterprises, and investment hotspot enterprises repurchased more shares during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Additionally, the market value of repurchase programs issued during periods of high economic policy uncertainty is larger. We also discover that economic policy uncertainty substantially influences the characteristics, timing, and outcomes of the repurchase programs. Lastly, this article confirms that share repurchase behavior has a similar effect to voluntary disclosures and can alleviate the information asymmetry triggered by economic policy uncertainty. In summary, Chinese listed firms have resorted to more share repurchases during periods of high economic policy uncertainty to convey their actual value and boost investor confidence, aligning with the signaling motive. Open market share repurchases surface as an efficacious instrument to cope with the risk from economic policy uncertainty.
  • 详情 Policy uncertainty and disappeared size effect in China
    The China-U.S. trade frictions and COVID-19 pandemic have caused unprecedentedly high economic policy uncertainty since 2017. To resist this high uncertainty, investors may prefer large stocks over small stocks, thereby damaging the size effect. To test this inference, we apply data from China to show that the size effect becomes insignificant after 2017. However, a significant size effect re-emerges among stocks with low valuations or low volatility, and this is positively associated with the increment of the economic policy uncertainty index. We also find that when uncertainty increases, institutional investors increase their holdings in small stocks before 2017, but hold more large stocks after 2017. Our findings consistently suggest that high policy uncertainty may change investors' preferences for firm size and cause the disappearance of the size effect, and only among stocks with low risk, size effects may show up due to low-risk small firms' similar function in resisting market uncertainty as large firms. Other mechanisms, such as the quality premium, unexpected profitability shock, shell value, or M&A option value, are not applicable in explaining the findings in China. Our study contributes to proposing a new mechanism for the time-variability of the size effect.
  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Business Performance: The Moderating Role of Service Transformation
    This paper selects Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2011 to 2020 as a research sample and analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on business performance. We find that economic policy uncertainty is detrimental to the improvement of business performance; service transformation can significantly offset the adverse effect of economic policy uncertainty on business performance, and this positive effect will increase with the depth of service transformation, Furthermore, embedded service transformation is more effective than mixed service transformation in weaking the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on business performance. The results of the heterogeneity test show that the negative relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm business performance, as well as the positive effect of servitization transformation, is more noticeable in non-state-owned enterprises and low sale growth firms. The results are robust after various specifications of variables, possible endogeneity issues, and more control variables are considered.
  • 详情 Quiet Quitting or Working Hard: Economic Policy Uncertainty and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts
    This paper examines whether sell-side analysts struggle to cope with macroeconomic uncertainty. We find that analysts issue more accurate earnings forecasts when facing higher economic policy uncertainty, which conflicts with the conclusions in the US. We provide a novel explanation for this finding and exclude the view that forecast accuracy improvement comes from analysts’ efforts to actively collect private information through site visits. Further evidence supports that heuristic cognitive bias and emotional framing effect hold back analysts’ tendency to optimism in China, resulting in higher forecast accuracy. As to why Chinese analysts do not work harder but issue more accurate forecasts, we suggest that it is mainly due to the different market regimes faced by analysts in the two countries. Our study sheds light on how macroeconomic uncertainty affects analysts’ unethical behavior and explains the cognitive processes involved.
  • 详情 The Influence of Peers' Md&A Tone on Corporate Cash Holdings
    We explore whether Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) can provide incremental information to peers. Using Chinese stock market data, we find that positive peers' MD&A tone encourages firms to hold more cash, particularly for industries with fewer institutional investors' site visits. Moreover, this association is moderated by predation risk and decision-making environment. Specifically, this effect is more pronounced for firms which are market followers or financial constrained, and it is also stronger for firms operating under higher economic policy uncertainty or solely in domestic market. Overall, our findings enrich the information channels of peer effects in cash policy.